Original | Odaily Star Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)

As the World Cup approaches, prediction markets have already heated up.

With over a month of competition and 104 matches spanning from group stages to knockout rounds, different teams take the field daily, generating new discussion points every day.

For this reason, the two leading platforms in the prediction market—Polymarket and Kalshi—have already secured their positions for the World Cup. Polymarket launched a dedicated World Cup section, though it currently lacks a separate prize pool and may still rely on LP incentives; Kalshi, while offering a $1 million champion prediction prize pool, requires U.S.-based KYC verification to participate.

World Cup-specific prediction interface on Polymarket

However, the excitement around World Cup prediction markets isn't limited to Polymarket and Kalshi alone. As the tournament draws near, major exchanges are also joining the surge in prediction activity. Below, Odaily Star Daily takes you through each exchange’s World Cup prediction initiatives.

Binance: predict.fun Takes Over World Cup Prediction Market Access, Dual Campaigns Offer Over $2.3 Million in Total Prizes

Among all publicly announced World Cup prediction market activities, Binance’s ecosystem partner predict.fun offers the largest reward pool.

Notably, both Binance’s main platform and Binance Wallet have integrated the third-party on-chain prediction market platform predict.fun, opening probability trading access for users. Thus, Binance’s World Cup prediction campaign is centered entirely around predict.fun.

Binance main platform prediction section World Cup event interface

Specifically, predict.fun’s World Cup campaign consists of two parts: first, the “Predict Cup” event launched within the predict.fun platform, with a total prize pool of $2 million; second, Binance Wallet has co-launched a football season PNL trading contest with predict.fun, featuring a $300,000 prize pool.

The “Predict Cup” event leans more toward full-tournament gameplay (official website: https://predict.fun/world-cup). Users can select up to five teams they support and make predictions across various markets related to match outcomes, scores, goals, etc., accumulating Fan Points to share in the prize pool. Prize amounts depend on users’ ranking at the end of each round, distributed after each match concludes. The top-ranked player receives 15% of the prize pool per round, increasing to 20% in the final. Here is the breakdown of available prize pools per round:

Group stage: $70,000 per group;

Round of 32 knockout: $25,000 per match;

Round of 16 knockout: $30,000 per match;

Quarterfinals: $40,000 per match;

Semifinals: $50,000 per match;

Final: $260,000.

“Predict Cup” event prize pool distribution

The $300,000 PNL trading contest between Binance Wallet and predict.fun (promoted as a pinned post on Binance Wallet’s official X account) focuses more on trading performance rankings. Users must register via the event page and conduct trades in either Binance’s main platform prediction market or the predict.fun program within Binance Wallet under the World Cup category. Final rankings are determined by realized P&L generated during the event period. Top 500 users meeting eligibility criteria will receive rewards, with the champion receiving $50,000.

Binance Wallet web version prediction market section event interface

OKX: Free Points for Predictions, Prize Pool Cap at 16.6 BTC

Differing from Binance, OKX’s World Cup campaign does not integrate third-party prediction markets but instead operates on its self-developed internal prediction market. Users don’t need to directly invest funds to participate in World Cup predictions—they earn points by completing tasks and then use those points to enter predictions.

From an entry barrier standpoint, OKX’s approach is more aligned with “free prediction + task-based incentives.” Users can earn points through event registration, daily check-ins, predicting matches, completing new user tasks, and inviting friends, then use these points for World Cup-related predictions.

Regarding the prize pool, OKX employs a dynamic unlocking mechanism. With nearly 80,000 participants so far, the current prize pool stands at 4 BTC (approximately $247,000 in value). Once participation exceeds 400,000 users, the prize pool reaches its cap of 16.6 BTC (approximately $1.02 million in value). Specifically, users can earn points through five primary methods:

Predicting World Cup matches, earning points;

Registering for the event, instantly receiving points;

New users completing tasks and registering for the event, instantly receiving points;

Inviting friends who complete new user tasks, instantly receiving points;

Daily check-ins, earning points.

OKX prediction section World Cup event

Bybit: Earn Points via Trading, Use Points for Match Predictions, Max Prize Pool of $1 Million

Bybit’s World Cup campaign, named Football Season 2026, revolves around trading tasks and football match predictions, with a maximum prize pool of $1 million.

The campaign adopts a “trade to earn points, use points to predict” model. Users first complete designated trading tasks to earn Points, then use those Points to participate in football match outcome predictions. Correct predictions result in point amplification based on community multipliers; incorrect predictions lead to corresponding point deductions.

The event is divided into three phases: group stage, knockout stage, and final, each settled independently. Users who accumulate at least 30 net points in any single phase become eligible to claim a share of that phase’s prize pool, with final rewards distributed proportionally based on net points among qualified users.

Bybit World Cup prediction event interface

Gate: Launches World Cup Zone, Introduces “Green Field Prophet” $500,000 Campaign

Currently, Gate has launched the “Green Field Prophet” limited-time World Cup campaign. During the event, users who register and complete spot trading, futures, CFD, VIP upgrades, and multi-service line tasks receive prediction market experience vouchers and betting coupons. They can then participate in prediction challenges within Gate Polymarket’s designated football match prediction markets, aiming for high rankings on the leaderboard, ultimate champion predictions, VIP jersey gift boxes, live streaming giveaways, and other multiple benefits.

The total prize pool exceeds $500,000, including prediction market experience vouchers, USDT rewards, trading cashback, and limited-edition football-themed merchandise.

Gate Green Field Prophet event interface

Bitget: Main Event Focus on Bitget Wallet, Launches $200,000 Campaign

Bitget’s World Cup initiatives are primarily centered on Bitget Wallet. From a product perspective, Bitget Wallet has integrated Polymarket’s World Cup prediction market, allowing users to directly participate in on-chain predictions within the wallet and access AI analysis, smart fund tracking, and other auxiliary information.

Building on this entry point, Bitget Wallet has launched the 2026 FIFA World Cup Prediction Market event with a total prize pool of $200,000, featuring the following activities:

World Cup champion prediction, $20,000 prize pool: users can select their predicted champion team and earn points by inviting friends. Those who correctly guess the champion will split the prize pool based on their accumulated points. This mode requires no trading, making it low-barrier to entry;

20-day consecutive prediction streak challenge, $80,000 prize pool: users participate in designated prediction market trades daily during the event period; upon meeting requirements, they receive rewards—up to $10 per day, with a maximum of $200 across the entire event;

Social viewing party, $50,000 prize pool: users join Bitget Wallet’s viewing channel and can participate in random red packets and exclusive airdrops during live matches;

First-trade protection, $50,000 prize pool: new users who suffer losses when using the prediction market for the first time can receive compensation from Bitget Wallet—limited spots available on a first-come, first-served basis.

Author: Asher

Original: Odaily Star Daily