Kalshi’s scale is far smaller than many people imagine. The company’s 200 employees mostly work in an open-plan office in Manhattan’s Meatpacking District, not even occupying an entire floor of a building.

Yet today, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are nearly ubiquitous.

They serve as primary sponsors for major sports events, and media outlets frequently cite their data in political and financial market reporting. Users can bet on the probabilities of various events unfolding: final football match scores, clinical trial outcomes for new drugs, or which topics will be mentioned in a Trump presidential speech.

Kalshi was founded in 2018 and officially opened to the public in 2021. Its founders are two recent MIT graduates: CEO Tarek Mansour and COO Luana Lopes Lara. In May this year, the company completed a new round of fundraising, reaching a valuation of $22 billion. Mansour grew up in Lebanon; Lopes Lara hails from Brazil. According to Forbes, both are under 30 years old and have already joined the ranks of billionaires.

In the U.S., prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and once approved, they may operate nationwide. Gambling companies, by contrast, must obtain licenses state by state—different regulatory frameworks apply. A New York Times investigation revealed that recent CFTC staff reductions and relaxed enforcement have objectively accelerated the growth of the prediction market industry.

The rapid expansion has attracted significant investors and new entrants, including individuals connected to the Trump family: Donald Jr. is an investor in Polymarket and serves as a paid advisor to Kalshi. Meanwhile, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg is also eyeing entry into the prediction market space.

Some legislators and regulators argue that prediction markets are merely gambling in disguise. At the same time, the industry faces insider trading risks: in recent months, a U.S. soldier involved in the operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro placed bets on related events on Polymarket; a White House teleprompter operator similarly wagered on Trump’s speech content via Kalshi.

New York State Attorney General Letitia James recently sued Kalshi, accusing it of illegal operations and circumventing state gambling laws. Kalshi dismissed the lawsuit as “political theater” and asserted that states lack authority to shut down the company. Over a dozen states have introduced regulatory bills targeting prediction markets this year.

In its most recent funding disclosure, Kalshi reported that platform annualized trading volume surged to $17.8 billion. To Mansour, markets where individuals can financially back their own predictions hold profound value—they help “calibrate” (a term he often uses) this world, which is overwhelmed with information yet starved of truth.

The following is a condensed version of the interview for readability.

Q: You’ve described Kalshi’s vision as “financialization of everything.” Many perceive this idea as dystopian. Why do you believe it’s a good thing?

I think people misinterpret this phrase. The appeal of prediction markets lies in transforming subjective, emotional, and ideologically charged debates into a mathematical, objective system with clear and transparent incentive structures. If you conduct diligent research, apply rational analysis, and strive for truth, you’re likely to profit. Conversely, if your views are biased, detached from reality, or extreme, you’ll likely lose money.

This market possesses a unique sense of order: you can clearly discern the motivations behind others’ positions. Participation in these markets is fundamentally about pursuing truth—not just for ideological reasons, but because it leads to profit.

Q: Currently, a large number of users engage in sports event trading. What’s the split between sports and other categories in terms of trading volume on your platform?

Indeed, people love trading sports events. Our users are typically drawn to math, economics, and trading, enjoying thinking about probabilities and the variables influencing event outcomes. Sports events provide an ideal training ground for probabilistic thinking.

Q: Can you share specific figures?

Last year, sports-related trades accounted for roughly 95% of volume; now it's approaching two-thirds. There are countless weekly sports events, but political events don’t occur continuously. Sports trading provides ample liquidity for other categories such as crypto, politics, and macroeconomics, significantly accelerating growth across those segments.

Q: How is the political category performing currently?

Major political events can generate market sizes ranging from $50 million to $100 million. As participation grows, market pricing accuracy improves markedly, aligning expectations more closely with reality.

Q: Returning to the theme of “financialization of everything,” what’s Kalshi’s next move?

There must be limits to everything. Kalshi supports reasonable regulation. We’ve always followed a compliant path. In our early days, we spent years planning product categories and securing federal licenses—a grueling process. At just 22 years old, the first four years of my career were spent collaborating with lawyers to establish a regulatory framework for the industry.

Q: Are you satisfied with the current regulatory environment? Are there loopholes?

As long as innovation and emerging phenomena exist, no era’s regulation is ever complete. If regulation were flawless, no new things would ever emerge in this country.

Q: There’s speculation about tension between you and Polymarket co-founder Shayne Coplan. Can you clarify the real situation?

People love to watch competitors clash. But this isn’t direct competition. My true rivals are elsewhere: Robinhood, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Coinbase, Interactive Brokers, major banks, and yes, Mark Zuckerberg—who is also watching this space. Competing alongside such players excites me.

Our differences with Polymarket stem from philosophical divergence.

Q: What exactly is the core difference?

The fundamental divide lies in development strategy: compliance-driven operation versus unregulated, wild-growth expansion. I believe Polymarket lacks a solid foundation for market risk control. In the long run, this is detrimental not only to them but to the entire industry.

Q: How do you convince outsiders that Kalshi’s regulatory framework truly prioritizes user interests?

The continuous growth of the industry itself is proof of trust—users willingly entrust their capital to us. If users suffer losses and lose faith, they’ll stop using the platform and warn others.

Q: Is trading volume heavily concentrated among a few traders?

I don’t have exact percentages, but volume distribution is indeed uneven. Some users trade sporadically each month—treating it as a hobby or side gig. Others are full-time participants, known as superforecasters. These elite forecasters analyze vast amounts of information. Though they represent less than 2% of users, they account for 70% to 80% of trading volume.

Our most accurate inflation forecaster is just an ordinary person from Kansas; the top ten political forecasters come from diverse backgrounds, none with Wall Street credentials—many are blue-collar workers. That’s fascinating.

Q: What measures does Kalshi take to prevent insider trading?

First, all users undergo identity verification; we know the real identities of traders, enabling rapid traceability in case of suspicious activity. Second, we’ve built a system modeled after the NYSE, automatically flagging suspicious trading patterns. Third, we enforce full transparency—every transaction is publicly available.

This has pros and cons. The downside is that everyone can see transaction records—any anomaly immediately invites suspicion of insider trading. The upside is precisely the same: abnormal behavior is subject to collective scrutiny. Anyone attempting insider trading would essentially be committing fraud under public view.

Insider trading is subtle. In a way, insider information can make prices more efficient. But we firmly prohibit it because it undermines fairness and ultimately drives away average traders.

Some economists argue insider trading enhances prediction accuracy, thereby increasing confidence in market outcomes. But fairness remains our non-negotiable baseline.

Q: The company is expanding rapidly. How do you balance external affairs while focusing on internal development?

Luana and I work extremely hard—we often work weekends, and time is always found. Once business stabilizes, many tasks become standardized and can be handed off to teams. She handles internal operations; I focus on external matters. This model works well.

Kalshi employs a highly flat organizational structure, enabling efficient project execution. Few management layers exist, preventing managers from appropriating frontline employees’ achievements. Those who deliver results lead the team, fostering urgency and intrinsic motivation.

Q: Where does your management style come from?

Lebanese people generally possess strong adaptability—their environment is full of uncertainty. This upbringing taught me that the world is inherently unpredictable.

Today, AI evolves almost every two weeks, and the landscape shifts instantly. Corporate structures must adapt to this pace. Thus, we deliberately avoid rigid hierarchies. Whether facing major challenges or new opportunities, our teams can flexibly reorganize and collaborate.

Q: Continuing with your personal journey, what was your parents’ most important advice?

My mother always told me: Always give 120% effort, striving for perfection. The difference in outcomes often comes down to that final 20% of effort.

Quick Fire Round

Q: Which recent Kalshi trade caught your attention?

A: Contracts tied to compute power prices.

Q: What’s your favorite question when interviewing job candidates?

A: How do you view Elon Musk?

Q: What’s your most contrarian opinion?

A: I believe the success of any great company ultimately doesn’t hinge on its executives.

Q: Do you consider yourself a manager?

A: No, I’m not good at managing people.

Q: What question did you recently ask an AI?

A: I asked ChatGPT about the probability of winning the 2028 midterm elections—now AI can pull Kalshi data to run simulations.

Q: What’s the worst advice young entrepreneurs hear most often?

A: Many advise entrepreneurs to collect advice from everywhere. But entrepreneurship has no universal formula. People overly rely on others’ opinions, and many enjoy giving advice simply to feel superior—most of it is worthless.

Q: Then what advice would you give young founders?

A: Don’t treat my words as gospel. Within manageable bounds, experiment boldly and take calculated risks.

Q: Best advice on meetings?

A: If you can avoid a meeting, don’t have one.

Original article: BlockBeats